It is now one year from the date of the referendum. A year ago today the Great British Prople used their Great Democratic Right and expressed their opinion. Of course, I am no politician. Not yet, at least. For if I do become a politician, and if anyone wants a ready made scandal, they are welcome to read my opinion of Brexit, and the people who voted for it, here. But that was a different time, and opinion moved on. So let’s see Brexit revisited!
I swear, this will be the last political intrusion on this blog for at least a couple months. Or weeks. Possibly days, but we’ll see what happens.
The Brexit referendum was a mixed blessing. On the one hand, it allowed the British people, to air their grievances and talk about what country they wanted to live in. On the other, it lead to some smooth bastards with money, technology, and rhetoric convincing a small majority of people we should leave the EU for reasons nebulous and illusory. It got rid of David Cameron 👏 but it brought in Theresa May 😱. Primarily, though, Brexit looks like it’s going to be an unvarnished curse for everyone except lawyers and journalists – the two types of people who will always do well.
Of course, just looking at it in a fair way, it was always going to be bad at this stage of leaving the EU. There’s a lot of uncertainty about what a future trading relationship will look like. Powers to change anything remain out of our hands. And markets have reacted in a way which is wholly predictable. They fell. They stabilised. They grew enough to avoid technical recession. The currency dropped, which was actually quite good for some sectors. Unfortunately, it was but the beginning (a fact I alluded to in this poem).
Last year the only clear portent of misgiving was the currency weakening and holidays costing more for regular people who hadn’t anticipated that particular event. Black Swan Event, don’t you know. This year, there are concerns of an agricultural nature . British food has been greatly helped in the past 15 years by the inclusion of Eastern Europe. This has helped farmers to always find a huge number of people willing to pick fruit and pack sausages for minimum wage. But now, one year on, this source of new labour is drying up. So, hopefully we don’t all starve!
This is what happens when we’re left off the hook. The uncertainty of a Brexit process that will take 2 years, while we have to fulfil our treaty and financial obligations and lose a lot of sway with our closest neighbours.
We can’t yet reach out to create new trading arrangements with other countries because we’re still part of the EU, and the EU negotiates trade for all. My current hope is that the government, with the Conservatives still in power, have to humiliatingly climb down and reverse Brexit. Britain does not appreciate people who mess up. The best option with Brexit stilll happening is a transitional agreement, maybe about a decade long, where the UK enters the European Free Trade Agreement for 5 years or so while we negotiate new deals with the rest of the planet. For that to happen though, it will take a premium statesman of the type we don’t currently have.